Scientists warn flu epidemic is on the way

A flu epidemic is drawing closer, as the threshold number of cases for qualifying for epidemic status was passed this week for the first time this winter, according to the Scientific Institute for Public Health.

The threshold stands at 144 consultations with a doctor for every 100,000 people. In the past week, the institute reports, the number reached 232 and is expected to keep rising.

However, an outbreak only counts as an epidemic when the threshold is passed in two successive weeks. In addition, 20% of respiratory samples must test positive on analysis. Last week’s samples tested positive at a rate of 66%, evenly split between the A strain, the most virulent for humans, and the B strain of the virus.

“It is not possible to determine the date or the severity of the peak,” the institute said in a statement. “That data will only be known later, once a noticeable reduction in flu activity is measured.” It is also not possible to determine the effectiveness of this season’s flu vaccines, they said.

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