Brexit vote one year on: What happens now?

For many of the Brits living in Belgium, 23 June 2016 was the end of an era. The news that the UK had voted to leave the EU, where many have been building their lives for years, prompted anger, despair and, for some, a rush to the nearest town hall to apply for Belgian citizenship.

Since then, the UK government has done little to assuage the fears of British nationals living abroad in the EU. Linked to the overall negotiations for a Brexit deal, the issue of residency rights has become something of a game of chess, with expats as the pawns. While many people hope and believe there will be a smooth departure from the EU, enabling them to continue with their lives as normal, what prevails while politicians hash out a deal by the deadline of March 2019 is uncertainty.

“We are in a situation where we just don’t know what’s going to happen,” says Caroline Laske, chair of the Brussels British Community Association. “For the people who want to continue here, there are many pragmatic questions – health insurance, social insurance, pensions – which no one can answer.”

EU staff

Among the most affected are those working for EU institutions. Immediately after the result, European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker emailed British employees to tell them they were still wanted. Even so, those seeking high-level political appointments will likely be out of luck.

“Clearly, Brexit will affect their career development. British people who hoped to make it to director level are not going to get those jobs,” says Simon Taylor, Brexit reporter at MLex. “And even if people are not unceremoniously thrown out in March 2019, people will seek opportunities elsewhere.”

For those hordes of lobbyists, consultants and lawyers whose bread and butter is making sense of EU regulations for their clients, there is good news and bad news, according to British Chamber of Commerce chief executive Glenn Vaughan. “If anything, there is definitely a feeling that British companies will need more advice and support,” he says, adding that Brexit will likely be a boon for business.

Nonetheless, fears about how the free movement of labour will be restricted prevail. “When we talk to our businesses, their concern is about getting the right people in the right places,” says Vaughan. “If there are disruptions to recruitment, that’s a big issue. Lobbying and consultancy are classic talent businesses.”

Business worries

It’s not only EU-related work that has proven to be a big draw for Brits. Belgium is also a base for many multinationals, which count many Brits among their workforce. Thanks to its world-class universities, Belgium has also attracted academics from the UK and vice versa. Laske, herself a professor at Ghent University, says Brexit is having an effect there too: “People don’t look at jobs in the UK in academia anymore.”

Although many workers are on temporary contracts, for those who want to stay it’s not just residency rights that are at stake but also the future of businesses that trade with the UK. Will there be tariffs? More complicated customs arrangements? The signs from the Belgian government at least are good so far. Prime minister Charles Michel was quick to say he would welcome British companies here. Lloyd’s of London has already announced that it will open an office here in the wake of Brexit.

“Needless to say, whatever the outcome of Brexit, we want to maintain an amicable relationship with the United Kingdom,” federal trade minister Cecile Jodogne insists. “The wellbeing of our respective expatriates is of paramount importance and British citizens will always be most welcome in Belgium and Brussels, there is no doubt about that.”

There is also the comfort of a long history between the UK and Belgium. “There are lots of very significant business relations and lots of good reasons economically, socially and culturally as to why we should be able to come to a fairly positive agreement,” says Britcham’s Vaughan.

Becoming Belgian

Meanwhile, amid the uncertainty, a few hundred Brits living here have already applied for Belgian or another EU nationality, through family background or marriage to an EU national. Of the near 1,300 British living in Tervuren, just outside Brussels, more than 50 have applied for nationality since 23 June. In Ixelles, where there is the largest number of Brits, about 50 have applied, and in Brussels-City around 100.

Whether Brexit will be as hard as its supporters in the UK want remains to be seen, with most commentators expecting a reciprocal residency right that allows Brits to continue to live here. Nonetheless, Vaughan says businesses have to prepare for the worst-case scenario. “That’s the approach we have to take given the uncertainty.”

This article first appeared in The Bulletin Summer 2017. Browse the magazine here, pick up a copy in newsagents or subscribe today...